Futures Thinking
Imagine, analyze, and design possible futures to make better decisions in the present.
The future is not a place we go — it's a place we create. Paths are not found, they are made.
— John SchaarMastery progression
Thinks the future is fixed or unpredictable. Acts only in the immediate present. Does not connect their decisions to long-term consequences.
Starts imagining possible futures. Identifies simple trends. Struggles to sustain more than one scenario at a time.
Builds multiple future scenarios with clear variables. Identifies early signals of change. Evaluates how current decisions shape different possible futures.
Designs strategies with long-term vision. Works with uncertainty without becoming paralyzed. Helps others think about fairer, more creative, and more possible futures.
- Imagine what their life might look like in 5 years
- Identify a visible trend in their environment (technology, climate, habits)
- Distinguish between what is probable and what is desirable
- Build two or three different future scenarios for the same problem
- Identify weak signals of change before they become obvious
- Evaluate how a decision made today affects different possible futures
- Distinguish trends, uncertainties, and constants in a given context
- Design a foresight framework for organizations or communities
- Facilitate a scenario planning process with multiple stakeholders
- Produce futures analysis using methodologies such as Delphi or STEEP
Questions that activate it
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What could this look like in 10 years?
Tap to flipInvites stepping out of the immediate moment. Ask them to describe not just what changes, but who gains and who loses. Works for technology, society, the environment, and personal life.
Tap to returnWhat signals of that future already exist today?
Tap to flipConnects the imagined future with the observable present. Trains the ability to read the environment. Ideal for working with news, trends, and everyday phenomena.
Tap to returnWhat would happen if everything stayed the same? And if it changed radically?
Tap to flipOpens the spectrum of possibilities. Forces thinking about continuities and ruptures. Use it to have students build at least two contrasting scenarios.
Tap to returnWhat future do you want, and what are you doing today to build it?
Tap to flipConnects vision with action. Futures thinking is not just imagining — it's acting from the present. Ideal for personal and social projects.
Tap to returnWho has the most power to decide what that future will look like?
Tap to flipIntroduces the political dimension of the future. Futures are not neutral: they are built by actors with interests. Ideal for social science and citizenship.
Tap to returnIs this future possible, probable, or desirable?
Tap to flipTeaches how to differentiate the three types of futures. Possible: it could happen. Probable: it's the most likely. Desirable: it's what we want. A key distinction in futures studies.
Tap to returnWhat would need to change today for that future to be possible?
Tap to flipBackcasts from the future to the present. This is the backcasting technique. Very powerful for project planning and designing social change.
Tap to returnWhat would surprise you to find in that future?
Tap to flipActivates radical imagination. Surprises reveal hidden assumptions about how we think the world works. Opens conversations about ruptures and discontinuities.
Tap to returnConnection map
85% of the jobs that will exist in 2030 don't exist yet. Yet less than 10% of school curricula include futures education or futures thinking.
Institute for the Future & Dell Technologies, 2017 — The Next Era of Human-Machine PartnershipsIdeas for developing it
- Design three possible futures for the same topic: one probable, one optimistic, and one disruptive
- Give each scenario a name and a newspaper headline to make them concrete
- Choose a news story and project three different ways it could evolve
- Identify in current news what is a trend, what is a weak signal, and what is noise
- Create a timeline going backwards (history) and forwards (possible futures)
- Mark the moments of change on the timeline: what decisions caused them
- Invent what school, the neighborhood, or the planet might look like in 20 years and draw that image
- Write a letter from the future explaining how a problem of today was solved
- Simulate a meeting set in the year 2045: each student represents a different actor with their own interests
- Debate public policy decisions from the perspective of those who will live with their consequences
- Project the impact of an emerging technology (AI, biotechnology, energy) over 20 years
- Analyze real data trends and build projections with different assumptions
- Analyze historical decisions by asking what future those who made them were trying to build
- Compare the visions of the future held by different political or social movements of the past
- Design an object or service for a specific future — what needs would people have in that context?
- Prototype a solution to a problem that doesn't exist yet but can already be anticipated
- Write three possible versions of their own trajectory in 5 years and reflect on what makes them different
- Identify which habits of today are building or destroying the future they want
Resources and tools
Introduction to futures thinking by Laboratorio Futuro, an Argentine organization of reference in futures studies.
Dilemma CardsWebsiteFutures Literacy — UNESCOUNESCO's futures literacy program. Resources, research, and methodologies for teachers and decision-makers.
Cause-Effect DiagramPriority VoteTimelineRole Cards